COVID-19 • Data & Lethality

COVID-19:  Data & Lethality 

March 04, 2020

IF YOU HAVE A FEVER, COUGH, SWEATS (no not sweat pants, silly) – YOU HAVE COVID-19 UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE.  YOU SHOULD:

1. Self isolate.
2. Call your healthcare provider for guidance.
3. Seek care if you have trouble breathing or other serious symptoms.

I’m not an all-caps kind of guy, but this basic step is absolutely necessary right now to slow transmission while we are ‘flying blind’.

Data on COVID-19 is like a puzzle; we got the edges done with genetic sequencing, but now we have to fill in the middle.  Without the use of widespread testing, however, half the pieces are still upside down.

For the next several weeks we are going to hear conflicting data on stuff that seems pretty important; like the lethality of this disease.  Numbers from 1% to 4% (ie. 10 to 40 times that of the flu) are kicking around and here is why it’s not clear.

Initially, in an out break, you know nothing but folks are getting sick and dying.  Your treatment efforts are based on what worked before and that is often not effective – think HIV/AIDS.

When disease hits a vulnerable population (schools, nursing home) it grow exponentially; it ‘explodes’.  This ‘explosion’ could be in kids who don’t seem to not get very sick (but spread it very effectively) or in nursing homes which kills a lot of folks.  So we’ve basically been counting the nursing home folks – those who die easiest and first – but not the ‘well carrier’ school kids. That initial ‘view’ of the disease is skewed to the easiest to count – the sickest – and makes COVID-19 look very lethal.  As surveillance – random testing – improves and the number of ‘well carriers’ are counted, our numbers will look better as well as be more accurate.

One of many puzzle pieces we still need to fill in.

Right now what is clear is that COVID-19 is not a gentle beast.  Some combination of easy spread or increased lethality is making this beast bad.  It seems to hit hard folks over 60 and those with pre-existing respiratory conditions.  It also seems like kids can be healthy carries of this disease which is a nice way to spread it around.  Ouch.

So, you know, have a beer – it that’s your thing.

Get prepared so you’re not scared.

And go on with life.

We are going to be OK.  Our healthcare providers need our help to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed.  Please do what you can and help others.  We are all citizens of the same world – pandemics make that abundantly clear.